Walter, this is a fascinating and important topic, so I've dived deeply into my research on generational history to help me forecast what the country in general may be like in five to ten years, followed by how that milieu may impact the practice of architecture:
In general: the America of 2020 to 2025 is expected to be analogous to the America of 1941 to 1946 or 1864 to 1869. We are likely to be at the lowest point of a civic crisis (economic, political and/or military-analogous to the Great Depression and World War II or to Abolitionism, the Civil War and Reconstruction). A farsighted vision of how to survive the crisis and to thrive afterward will be provided by the Boom Generation (age 60 to 77 at the beginning and aging to 65 to 82), who will be in the process of cementing a legacy and surrendering control of the country's institutions (government, corporations, non-profit organizations, universities, media, etc.-analogous to the generations of Abraham Lincoln, Henry David Thoreau, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Frank Lloyd Wright and Jane Addams in their later years). They will provide the "why" of America's predominant cultural direction. Pragmatic, ground-breaking leadership and technological brainpower throughout the crisis, based on the grand visions of their elders, will be provided by Generation X (age 39 to 59 at the beginning and aging to 44 to 64), who will be in the process of inheriting leadership of the country's institutions while also providing non-idealistic, gritty commentary on the culture (analogous to the generations of Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller, Mark Twain, George S. Patton, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Dorothy Parker and Ernest Hemingway in their most influential years). They will provide the "how" of America's predominant cultural direction, along with some intellectual balance to the idealism of their elders and the conformism of their juniors. The Millennial Generation (age 16 to 38 at the beginning and aging to 21 to 43) will faithfully carry out the orders of their elders, reinforced by their tendency to find strength and courage in conformity and in collective action (analogous to the generation of young adults who lent overwhelming amounts of labor and support during World War II or the Civil War). They will provide the manpower that carries out the "how" and "why" provided by others. Due to the severity of the ongoing civic crisis, the Homeland Generation (the first cohort of which will be 15 at the beginning, aging to 20, and the younger cohorts of which will still be in infancy) will be at the height of its over-protected, sheltered stage and in the early years of developing its predominantly conciliatory, adaptive personality, but will have no impact yet on the culture as a whole (analogous to the generations of Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, Martin Luther King, Jr., Sandra Day O'Connor and Woody Allen).
Boiling this down to the practice of architecture: clients backing the largest public and private projects will probably view the architecture of the recent past (e.g., the work of Frank Gehry) as decadent and excessive. They will also probably value recent advances in building science as they address energy costs and scarce resources but reject the idealistic and political aspects of the sustainability movement in favor of erecting structures as practically and efficiently as possible to survive and recover from the crisis at hand. As members of Generation X, these architects and patrons of architecture are likely to aspire to technically exceptional projects that can enhance human productivity by basing designs upon rapidly-evolving neuroscience and detailed research into the needs of the institutions and individuals that inhabit buildings (all analogous to the ambitious late-war weapons and post-war recovery programs of World War II and the Civil War). Emphasis is expected to be upon infrastructure, program and elements that influence human function (light, noise, workspace relationships, etc.), on minimizing lifecycle costs and on clean aesthetics, the costs of which can be scientifically justified. As professionals, architects will be relied upon for the ability to maximize efficiency of construction, maintenance and use more than for the ability to craft inspiring objects and spaces. Resilience will become a more important consideration than social or visual impacts. Admiration of past architecture will probably focus on movements like the International Style, the Case Study Houses and the work of architects like Mies van der Rohe and Richard Neutra, leading to a predominant aesthetic of overall simplicity coupled with sophisticated, advanced detailing, materials and building systems. And it is in the area of "invisible" building systems (data, lighting, electrical power, HVAC, fire suppression, structure, etc.) that the greatest innovations and advancements in design and production will probably be made, rather than in the area of artistic achievement. In other words: I believe the age of nerds (both client and architect) is about to eclipse the age of artists and activists. The speed with which that transition occurs will depend upon how quickly the conciliatory Silent Generation (age 78 to 95 in 2020-the children of the last civic crisis) withdraws from public life and how quickly Millennials assume a larger and more active role in politics, business, media and science. A precipitous onset of the civic crisis (analogous to the bombing of Pearl Harbor or the attack on Fort Sumter) could accelerate the transition.
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Sean Catherall AIA
Senior Project Manager
DAVE ROBINSON ARCHITECTS
Salt Lake City UT
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Original Message:
Sent: 03-05-2015 18:00
From: Walter Hainsfurther
Subject: What skills are needed in the 21st Century
This message has been cross posted to the following Discussion Forums: Repositioning the Architect and Small Project Practitioners .
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Since everyone has exhausted their opinions on convention keynote speakers, I want to pose a question that is, in my opinion, vital to the future relevance of the profession.
Let me preface the question by stating that I believe it can start an important discussion with clients and others. The information that we share should be invaluable for positioning the profession and our practices in the short and long term future.
The question is this: What services and skills do our clients want us to have in 5 - 10 years? Remember, these should be things they value and are willing to pay for. Also, with all due respect, it isn't about us thinking we know what they are thinking.
So let's start the discussion.
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Walter Hainsfurther FAIA
Kurtz Associates Architects
Des Plaines IL
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