Future proofing in highly uncertain times
Amortization in real estate frequently exceeds 25 years, comprehensive plans try to shape the future for 10 years, sometimes longer. Climate commitments go all the way to the end of this century. Yet, the future seems highly unpredictable. Two years of pandemic have changed the trajectory of much we were doing, not only in the US but globally. The war in Ukraine has suddenly upended much of the geopolitical assumptions that seemed to be certain. Global warming doesn't progress in any orderly fashion either. Nationally orderly transition of power doesn't seem to be guaranteed any longer. Throughout history there were some people convinced that the end is near, now this is a widely held belief. Uncertainty makes preparedness for a decade or more seemingly unattainable.
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| Unattainable summit? (Photo J. Earle via ikiōm) |
Rather than there being one likely future that we can frame our plans around, it is only too apparent that there is a wide range of plausible future scenarios. We need to come up with solutions that perform robustly in a wide range of these scenarios, rather than just one. (Mott McDonald)
Then there is technology. For people who believe in progress technology used to be the beacon of hope that allows a better life. Technology continues to develop at a breakneck pace but there is growing pessimism about the balance of solutions and harm. Furthermore, even where technology is supposed to come to the rescue, for example at renewable energies and transportation, implementation is often numbingly slow. Some plans appear ill conceived or flawed even before they are finished. For example Keystone XL from Canada and the $7 billion Nordstream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. Other projects like high speed rail or new electric transmission lines get stuck in a political and regulatory morass.
As a consequence, parts of the youth now see......(Read full article here)
Archplan Inc. Philipsen Architects