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How will cities change in the next decade?

  • 1.  How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 18 days ago

     

    In a time of instant messaging we are well informed about the now not only here, but also where our children live, our parents and friends, even if it is half way around the world. The more we illuminate the present from so many angles, the more the past sinks into impenetrable darkness. While some process in a week more information than our ancestors did in a lifetime, historic awareness has sunk to an all time low. The future hardly fares any better, the 10-day weather forecast notwithstanding. For the forebears the future was much like the past. Now all that is certain is that there will be change. Unfortunately, lately many people around the world got convinced that the future won't be good, so why even bother trying to decipher it?
    Who would have predicted that London will have a boom in bicycling?

    Not only at the end of a decade is this blog trying to tease out trends, the future and lessons from the past. This has been its topic for more than a decade. Taking the longer view beyond the moment. With a brand-new decade in its nascent state, speculation about what the future will hold is especially tempting. This article keeps it to cities and communities outside those popular "ten of" lists. It is, instead... READ FULL ARTICLE HERE


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    [Klaus] Philipsen FAIA
    Archplan Inc. Philipsen Architects
    Baltimore MD
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  • 2.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 18 days ago

    Klaus wrote"
    "...some process in a week more information than our ancestors did in a lifetime..."

    Well, sort of - our ancestors on the edge of the African savannah were as alert as anyone today, processing just as much info, albeit it less global. 


    Doug 



    ------------------------------
    Douglas Kelbaugh FAIA Kelbaugh FAIA FCNU 2016 Topaz Medallion Laureate
    Professor Professor and former Dean
    University of Michigan
    Seattle WA
    DouglasKelbaugh
    ------------------------------



  • 3.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 17 days ago
    All

    Have just completed a dissertation at Rutgers Bloustein addressing some of this including Millennial trends ... 

    ... but also focused on redevelopment trends and parking demand / accommodations.  

    Includes a series of four focus groups addressing these trends. 

    Happy to share 

    Will be published next week 

    Regards






  • 4.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 15 days ago
    hi
    I like to be part of the Discussion forum

    ------------------------------
    Rania Qutieshat
    Associate professor
    Al-Balqa Applied University
    Al Salt
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 13 days ago
    George
    would be interested in seeing your dissertation. Are you posting it?
    I teach planning studios every few semesters at Bloustein.
    thanks
    rlm
    Robin L Murray FAIA PP LEED BD+C
    rlmarch@ix.netcom.com


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    Robin Murray FAIA
    RLM Architect
    Trenton NJ
    ------------------------------



  • 6.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 11 days ago
    Robin

    Actually was just filed with Grad School yesterday.   Accepted this evening. 

    Will distribute a link before the weekend. 

    Frankly I'm exhausted.

    But want to send it along with a brief recap - but need a day or two to compose. 

    Regards. 

    George K. 






  • 7.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 3 days ago
    What magazine/ website?

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    Margaret Whitfield
    Bloomfield MI
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  • 8.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 2 days ago

    Depends of which future is selected!

     

    Defined 40 years ago and wrote the BOOK  a decade ago about 3rd wave (postindustrial) cities of the future; when Toffler wrote 3rd Wave.

     

     

    Sent from Mail for Windows 10






  • 9.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 17 days ago
    Dear ALL,

    The future will depend on our future resolve, actions and how we define "Quality of Life".

    Our ancestors did and lived in their best optimum ways as much as they could, based on the available means at that time.
    Today, WE are more fortunate to have both worlds:  On one hand , we can step back and act as if we were still in the dark ages an use survival skills and still make it.  On the other hand, WE can step up and use current technological means and speed up the process and head for the Moon or Mars.

    It is up to us...!!!

    Thank you.

    Anouar.


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    Best Regards,

     

    Anouar AITIDDIR' Assoc, AIA.

    Urbanist - Historic Preservationist.

    Building Plans Examiner Specialist – ICC Certified.

    Clark County Department of Building & Fire Prevention

    4701 W. Russell Road,

    Las Vegas, NV 89118

    Email:  anouaraitiddir@gmail.com



    ------------------------------
    Anouar Aitiddir Assoc. AIA
    Building Plans Examiner Specialist
    Clark County Dept. of Building & Fire Prevention Bureau
    HENDERSON NV
    ------------------------------



  • 10.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 12 days ago
    The drivers that you mention sound more like instabilities that are to be managed and not issues that demand our full attention. It is too easy to get distracted by the swirling changes and to miss the more pressing fact that a fundamental change is required. Yes we will have to deal with and increasingly volatile climate and waves of climate migrants. Yes technology will continue to try and convince us that they have the solution to all our problems, many of which technology created. A fundamental reorientation away from resource intensive linear processes and toward more regenerative or ecological processes that mirror nature rather than exploit it. This is what we should be focusing on. Most of the answers to our problem can be addressed through this line of thinking; but we can't be fooled into thinking that a post-carbon future will mean business as usual. The journals that celebrate glass architecture are just perpetuating the problem.

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    Edgar Adams AIA
    Roger Williams University
    Barrington RI
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  • 11.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 11 days ago
    Well stated, Roger. 
    It future isn't what it used to be. 
    Doug Kelbaugh
    2016 Topaz Medallion Laureate





  • 12.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 11 days ago
    Agreed. Many of my blog-posts promote a new way of non-linear system thinking.

    Klaus Philipsen FAIA, LEED AP
    President ArchPlan Inc.
    429 North Eutaw Street, Ste 2S
    Baltimore MD 21201
    T: 410.685.2002

    My book, Baltimore: Reinventing an Industrial Legacy City is my take on the post industrial American city and Baltimore after the unrest. 

    The book is now available in paperback. Order online directly from the publisher for just $19.98


    Visit my Cities, Architecture and Planning blogs "Community Architect" and "Community Architect Daily" with over 20,000 monthly page views and a total of over 1.8 million views to date.






  • 13.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 9 days ago

    How will cities change in the next decade?  First of all 10 years is really not long enough for a lot of change, especially with status quo drivers of urban life.  Rather, we must address the form of our communities based on the big picture, with big answers to big problems, with a timeframe that starts at 10 years, and goes on from there for decades beyond.

    When we talk about cities, we talk so much about climate change and the loss of ecological balance of the earth's systems.  We talk about bio-engineered crops, antibiotics in our water, and an epidemic on addiction.  We talk about economic disparity and homelessness, and a greater gap between the haves and the have nots.  We talk about racial inequality, immigration issues, and religious wars.   And it goes on and on, all seemingly hopeless.   You can't pick up the paper or listen to the news without one of these issues (and many more not mentioned) that seems to create a doomsday scenario regarding the future of our civilization, especially our cities.   But I wonder in reading all of this, if the real issue isn't one specific problem which affects each and every person, in every way possible.   That is overpopulation.   I believe that we can't continue to fill up the planet with more and more people, consuming more and more of the land to sustain us, when we have already exceeded the capacity of the planet to maintain the growth of humanity.

    We buy electric cars, but use rare earth compounds to make the batteries, and use coal to power the plants that make electricity.  We consume fuel for mobility, when the by-products pollute the air and push more and more carbon dioxide into the air.   We build more and more buildings, when the carbon footprint of construction is 40% of all the carbon created,   We consume more land for roads and highways, only to have them fill up overnight, creating more air pollution, and demands for alternative transportation, all creating their own carbon footprint.   We genetically modify food, demand more health care and literally consume the earth making the products, drugs, and facilities that we demand for our survival.   We have cities throughout the world that have grossly exceeded their infrastructure in water, sewers, roadways, and power.   We suggest that urbanization is the answer when we know for a fact that there is a limit to how many people can be crammed into one city without the cost of survival exceeding the cost of providing public safety and basic needs of food, shelter, health, and products.

    So, what does the city of the future look like?

    The answer is controlled growth and moderation of consumption to accommodate everyone who resides in that petri dish we call urbanity.

    I am not suggesting we back down and stop reproducing, nor that we shouldn't continue to fight climate change on our planet, but it does seem that the problem is bigger than carbon, bigger than weather, and bigger than a one tier approach to solving the world's problems.   The problem is that our economic model is based fundamentally on growth, and that growth fuels demand, which in turn fuels consumption.   But if in fact we have reached the tipping point, where the number of people exceeds the carrying capacity of the earth, then we really need to change the way we think about the problem and how we attempt to solve it.

    For a start, population distribution is greatly out of whack.   When we have third world countries who's population exceeds their ability to support the people, we have greater problems of drought, starvation, disease and mortality.   Second, we need to consider whether the cost of extending life infinitely is really a wise driver of our health care system.  I for one don't want to outlive my ancestors, and I think there is real wisdom in getting out of the way to make room for the younger, stronger.   Third, we need to get real with our demands for luxuries that make little sense and have little effect on our quality of life.   Do we really need that tiny box of blueberries from Peru in the middle of winter?   And how about those 10 trips to the grocery store to pick up one or two items.   If everyone would reduce their VMT by 50%, we might even be able to house more people in the cities we have, without the need for more cars, and more infrastructure.   Fourth, we need more jobs in more locations.   Does it make sense for large cities to subsidize large employers to come there, when a smaller city could use that employer as a means of sustaining their fair share of growth and prosperity?  Isn't it more reasonable to support more middle size cities than to force existing mega cities to grow beyond their capacity to support that growth?   We have seen in Denver the result of uncontrolled, unmitigated growth, which is slowly eating away the quality of life of those living in the city in virtually every way, and we also are getting well beyond the ability of our region to supply the water that is needed to support the jobs, and the people who are moving here.   Here again, economic gain is fueled by growth in one location, at the expense of another location.  The result here is that our growth has outstripped our ability to provide housing and food, water and shelter, and the result is a serious housing shortage, a residential market that is one of the most expensive in the nation, and a growing homeless population that no longer can afford to live in our great city.

    Bottom line is that the population boom  in our country will probably take care of itself in ways that are not pleasant to discuss.   Nature has a way of taking control, and our lack of resources and differential wealth is bound to eventually create more war, disease, and a shorter lifespan.  We already are seeing that effect in our nation where the lifespan has for the first time dropped because of the drug epidemic.   Somehow,     someway, there will be a leveling of the field created when demand exceeds the capacity to supply that demand, as example wars driven by our thirst for fossil fuels.   But in the meantime, as architects, we must not stand still and complacently watch while the world goes to hell from causes beyond what we can comprehend.   I personally believe that we have the capacity to greatly extend the time of human habitation on this earth.   But we need to think globally and get beyond local politics.  We need to foster a world attitude of balance and sustainability, resilience and a more nature driven approach to problem solving.   Bio-mimicry is just one example of designing buildings that replicate nature's way.   We need to change our economic model that rewards, not growth, but rather sustainability.   This means that instead of rewarding consumption, we instead need to reward innovation and reward those companies who produce the most sustainable products, while penalizing the wasters and the polluters.

    This means that as a profession we must step outside our comfort zone, become political, and live a life that reflects our values as providers rather than consumers.   As architects, we really are at the top of the food change.   We are the ones who define the built environment, create the patterns of urban growth, and define the cities of the future.   We are the ones who ultimately control the building industries, affect the carbon footprint of our community (30% of total carbon consumption).   We are the ones who define how people live, where they live, and what they do for work.   Without our solutions, urban growth is sprawl, sprawl is consumption, and ultimately human habitation is greatly compromised.   Unfortunately, we can't just focus on the next star building, for the wealthiest consummer.   Architecture is not a profession just for the elite.   We must get our hands dirty, become community advocates, run for public office, and get beyond buildings, becoming instead stewards of the environment and true drivers of the quality and form of our cities.

    The future of our cities looks pretty grim if there is just status quo.   The proliferation of junk is unfortunately driven by our need to please the client, to take the commission because we need to feed our families.   But it doesn't have to be that way.  As an industry, we must be the leaders of form, we must drive innovation in the building materials supply, we must give people something different beyond the status quo.   We need to reward architects who think outside the box, get beyond commodity, and create solutions to these global problems.   I know I am preaching to the choir, and as Fellows, we represent the top 5% of the profession.  But I just cannot believe that we have a much greater impact on the future of our cities than we exert today.   We have the problem solving abilities and the drive to make changes.   We have the control of the built environment, should we desire to take control of it.   We have the ability to change the way people think, and to change the decision making process of what gets built and where.    We can, and we must take a greater stand for what gets built and how, in the form of our cities, and the economics of job creation and quality of life.   If we create this future, based upon our training and our influence, the future of our cities can thrive for many generations.   But if we don't provide better answers, the future of cities are doomed to become cesspools of human consumpion, reserved only for the richest of the rich, at the expense of the rest of the population who no longer can afford to live and work there.

    Overpopulation will ultimately strangle the very lifeblood of our cities, and ultimately our civilization, and our earth's capacity to sustain human habitation.   



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    Richard von Luhrte FAIA
    Denver CO
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  • 14.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 5 days ago
      |   view attached

    All

    Sent by email a bit ago, now I don't see it.

    The attached provides a summary and overview of the research as does the Abstract in the LINK

    Hope this provides a basis for further discussion

    Regards,

    George J Kimmerle, PhD, AIA, PP, NCARB
    Kimmerle Group
    NY, NJ and CT
    www.kimmerle.com 


    Attachment(s)

    pdf
    Overview and comment.pdf   139K 1 version


  • 15.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 4 days ago
    it is there
    thanks





  • 16.  RE: How will cities change in the next decade?

    Posted 2 days ago
    Great discussion and thread insights for cities, growth and design thinking. Thank you!

    My passion/hobby is following technology trends and public policies that impact how we approach urban design in the built environment. Starting way back in 1995 with mapping transcontinental high-speed fiber optic lines that connect cities, governments and local communities on a global scale (attached).

    Looking forward, I recently found a very interesting trending snapshot worth a review from the upcoming 2020 SXSW conference (no affiliation) that addresses how we think about design and our human condition. Adding to the 'next decade' discussion with good links below......Enjoy!

    Smart Cities: Design Cities & Governments for Inclusivity

    New technologies have allowed the current generation to be the most connected in history – so why does it feel like governments are the most disconnected they have ever been? A lag in feedback from the citizens to the bodies that represent their interests can be detrimental at all levels of society. Thankfully, there are people who are actively working to stop the disconnect. We've invited them to our Government & Politics Track in the SXSW Conference to host discussions with experts from across the public, private, and nonprofit sectors on issues like technology regulation, livable cities, privacy issues, and the challenge of maintaining civil engagement in the age of social media.

    With tech working its way into our everyday lives, it's about time that it's utilized to update our government. With better connection, better insights into the lives of everyday people, and better feedback from the communities that policies are intended to serve, technology has the potential to change how we govern and bring policy to the cutting edge.

    Creating Opportunities for All Through New Tech

    Government must keep pace with the expectations of its people and with the even faster pace of emerging technologies. Upgrading today's public sector service delivery means creating a roadmap to continuous improvement becoming the norm, not the exception. John Paul Farmer, City of New York Chief Technology Officer and former tech advisor in the Obama administration, will map the role of technology in improving the lives of people and making government better in A Roadmap to the Future-Ready City

    5G will dramatically alter urban life by connecting more devices at dramatically faster speeds with fewer delays. This will have a massive impact on how cities operate and how services are delivered. Chelsea Collier (DigiCity), Jon Corner (City of Salford (UK) / The Landing), and Jordan Davis (Smart Columbus, Columbus Partnership) compare how the U.S. and the U.K are approaching smart cities in Smart Cities: US vs UK. Who's Winning. Smart Columbus won the U.S. Smart Cities Challenge in 2017, and built partnerships to serve the city's most vulnerable through connected tech. Jon Corner has led the development of Salford's MediaCityUK, host to the UK's first operational 5G network and 5G-enabled Living Lab. Speakers will share how they are shaping smart city approaches and deploying 5G, AR/VR, autonomous vehicles and more, discussing the benefits and areas for caution.

    Every month, the world's urban population grows by 6 million – cities are facing unprecedented growth, accelerated by the prospect of jobs, education, and a better life. With so much growth, how can cities unlock better access to social, economic and academic opportunities for all? For underserved groups such as young people or the homeless, access and inclusion continues to be a challenge. Mind the Gap: Innovating for Inclusive Cities contemplates how cities can deploy new technologies to promote inclusivity and empower communities to take advantage of all that a city has to offer. Juan Cabrera (El Paso ISD), Miguel Gamino (Mastercard), and Kim Hart (Axios) sit on this panel to discuss how cities can interweave these technologies into every aspect of people's daily lives. The panelists will also share examples of new pilot programs and will offer perspectives from the civic, social and private sectors.


    Adaptability to Need in Real Time

    Americans want city governments to be more responsive to their needs and desires. Meanwhile, city leaders manage what they can measure, needing hard data to drive smart decisions and focus on what works. It's more important than ever for city leaders to engage their residents in strategic, innovative ways to get actionable feedback and inject community voice into city government processes and priorities. This is easier to do if technology is used as a way to bridge the gap between communities and their government. Sit down with Hassan Aden (The Aden Group LLC), Carmen Best (Seattle Police Department), Mecole Jordan (Policing Project), and Sujeet Rao (Elucd) in Innovate to Collaborate: Tech for Community Voice as they explore how cities big and small across the U.S. use technology to power collaboration between government and communities - unlocking new opportunities to help people shape how their cities are run.

    Play is universal, and it can be a powerful tool for bridging divides within cities and communities - yet it is often absent from major discussions surrounding urban development or city change. City Change Through Play explores how play can have a positive impact upon the built environment, public policy, and everyday life. Sarah Brin (Meow Wolf), Leticia Lozano (MACIA Estudio), Ryan Swanson (The Urban Conga), and Malaika Toyo (Made Culture) will share a variety of play-focused projects and perspectives from around the world, demonstrating the power, value and impact of play upon city change and development.

    More on Smart Cities


    https://www.sxsw.com/conference/government-and-politics/

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    Nathan Ogle AIA

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