Discussion: View Thread

LA meeting

William J. Hercules FAIA, FACHA11 days ago

  • 1.  LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago
    I believe we should cancel the 2020 meeting in LA. The virus may peak around then. Bringing people from all over the world is not wise.



  • 2.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago

    I'm guessing that will happen but I'm sure that National is still considering their options.

     

    Gerard F.X. "Guy" Geier II, FAIA, FIIDA, LEED AP
    Managing Partner, FXCollaborative Architects LLP
    2018 President, AIANY
    22 West 19 Street, New York, NY 10011, USA
    D +1 646 292 8120 | M +1 917 596 8224
    ggeier@fxcollaborative.com | www.fxcollaborative.com

    We believe in the power of intelligence, intuition, and interconnection to design a better world.

    Carbon Neutral since 2008






  • 3.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago
    Bill,

    Wisdom is the better part of valor. Cancel the convention. This is no time to say, “It won’t happen to me.”

    Nick Peckham, FAIA
    Peckham Architecture, LLC
    2009 North Country Club Drive
    Columbia, MO 65201

    573-777-4444 (o)
    573-489-0901 (m)
    nick@peckhamarchitecture.com




  • 4.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago
    Bill,

    While I was very much looking forward to A'20 AIA National Conference in Los Angeles this year, I completely concur with your opinion.

    I am supposed to present on a panel and also wanted to celebrate the new Fellows this year. However, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic this week and today the U.S. has declared a National Emergency. California is a close 3rd behind Washington and New York for community related spread. I live in the Bay Area, one of the epicenters, and the numbers are doubling every day.

    The following data study is very effective in showing the impact of social distancing as a key to COVID-19 spread and deaths. Flattening the curve of impact relies on all of us.


    Additionally, most architectural practices are 10 folks and under, singular or small practices. It would be the greatest impact if those attending became infected and that spread back to their firms. Our profession is very vulnerable already because most of what we do is in person in the physical world. With the lack of testing - we have little knowledge of the actual numbers.

    In the spirit of our collective Health, Safety, and Welfare, I hope that our AIA Leaders take this all into consideration.

    Best Regards,

    Rosa T. Sheng, FAIA






  • 5.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago
    In Rhode Island two major regional one day conferences, one scheduled for May 1st is being postponed until the Fall, and the other for May 19th conference is being cancelled.  They were postponed and cancelled because we looked closely at the time curve of COVID-19 moving forward; the time and energy being expended in just the past week related to COVID-19; the disruption of work in the profit sector; the disruption of work in the volunteer sector; and discussions with collaborators, participants, exhibitors, sponsors.  We learned that because of the overall disruption our collaborators, participants, exhibitors, and sponsors were becoming more and more non-comical and reluctant to go forward given the unknowns of future impacts and ramifications.

    I am not advocating postponing or cancelling the 2020 AIA Conference, but pointing out that the downhill effects of COVID-19 are largely unknown and not as yet quantified, including the public and professional perception of holding such an event in light of this global human disaster.


    Ken


    KENNETH J. FILARSKI FAIA, LEED FELLOW, LEED AP BD+C, SITES AP, AICP, CFM, SAP+AEER, NCARB

    FILARSKIARCHITECTURE+PLANNING+RESEARCH

    P.O. Box 3210, Providence, RI 02909

    401.331.8800

    kjfilarski@yahoo.com


    Laurentia Bioregion




    innovation and excellence in design and planning

    creating a working landscape of

    ecology

    directed toward social responsibility and stewardship, lifelong learning,

    sustainable and renewable environments, appropriate technology and economics,

     in our urban, rural, coastal, and corporate communities

     © 2019







  • 6.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago
    Just got the email to speakers that A'20 is going to be postponed at 2:51pm PST.






  • 7.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago

    Auto-incorrect struck again..."non-comical" should have read as "non-committal".

    My apologies,

    Ken


    KENNETH J. FILARSKI FAIA, LEED FELLOW, LEED AP BD+C, SITES AP, AICP, CFM, SAP+AEER, NCARB

    FILARSKIARCHITECTURE+PLANNING+RESEARCH

    P.O. Box 3210, Providence, RI 02909

    401.331.8800

    kjfilarski@yahoo.com


    Laurentia Bioregion




    innovation and excellence in design and planning

    creating a working landscape of

    ecology

    directed toward social responsibility and stewardship, lifelong learning,

    sustainable and renewable environments, appropriate technology and economics,

     in our urban, rural, coastal, and corporate communities

     © 2019







  • 8.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 16 days ago
    Thanks Rosa,
    I appreciate the strong leadership from our board. It was a difficult decision.





  • 9.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 15 days ago
    Agreed, the Board did make the right decision, albeit a most difficult one. 


    Ken


    KENNETH J. FILARSKI FAIA, LEED FELLOW, LEED AP BD+C, SITES AP, AICP, CFM, SAP+AEER, NCARB

    FILARSKIARCHITECTURE+PLANNING+RESEARCH

    P.O. Box 3210, Providence, RI 02909

    401.331.8800

    kjfilarski@yahoo.com


    Laurentia Bioregion




    innovation and excellence in design and planning

    creating a working landscape of

    ecology

    directed toward social responsibility and stewardship, lifelong learning,

    sustainable and renewable environments, appropriate technology and economics,

     in our urban, rural, coastal, and corporate communities

     © 2019







  • 10.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 15 days ago

    A20 has been "postponed".

     

    Gerard F.X. "Guy" Geier II, FAIA, FIIDA, LEED AP
    Managing Partner, FXCollaborative Architects LLP
    2018 President, AIANY
    D +1 646 292 8120 | M +1 917 596 8224








  • 11.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 15 days ago
    Here's was announcement today of A'20 being postponed to a future date. Look for more information in the future.

    RK


    Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, AIA has made the difficult decision to postpone the AIA Conference on Architecture 2020, May 14–16 in Los Angeles.   

    As you know, AIA has been closely monitoring directives from city, county, and state officials, as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) throughout this crisis. Your health and safety are paramount, and AIA feels compelled to postpone the annual conference to minimize the risk to all concerned.  

    By making this decision in advance, we also hope to minimize any stress or inconvenience. We are working with our vendors and partners to reschedule A'20 now and we will share rescheduling information with you soon.   

    Thank you for supporting A'20 and stay safe.  

    If you have any questions, please check out our FAQ
     





  • 12.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 14 days ago

    It was my understanding LA (much like other major cities with many cases) had issued an order banning large gatherings, and this would include the AIA Meeting. Also, recent reports suggest the projected peak of COVID 19  will depend on these types of orders, and may range from 3-4 months to 10-12 months depending on their success. This meeting should follow those same guidelines, as did the NBA,

     

    Sent from Mail for Windows 10

     






  • 13.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 14 days ago
    It has already been cancelled.

    Gerard F.X. "Guy" Geier II, FAIA, FIIDA, LEED
    Managing Partner
    FXCollaborative Architects LLP
    22 West 19 Street, New York, NY 10011, USA
    +1.646.292.8120 | M +1.917.596.8224
    ggeier@fxcollaborative.com | www.fxcollaborative.com | @FXCOLLABORATIVE

    Carbon Neutral since 2008





  • 14.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 12 days ago
    Folks:  I am a public health environmental health scientist and a licensed and certified healthcare architect based in California.  I work in infectious diseases.  I deal with air, waterborne, and surface transmission of these type of diseases.  The AIA National Meeting had to be canceled for the health, safety and welfare of our state, its potential visitors, and anyone who would potentially enter the state internationally.  In the near future being out here in California get prepared that travel restrictions will most likely be around this state, the State of Washington, and State of NY at a minimum.  This is an emerging infectious disease situation.  I would also predict based on the pathway of the disease over the past few months and the knowledge from epidemiologists that this situation is not clearing at a minimum until July.  I started preparing for this situation in January when most of us in public health were notified by our colleagues around the country.  My colleagues work in the CDC, the EPA, and in academic centers around the country who were being continually updated as part of the public health response.  The Federal WH response was extremely slow.  Unfortunately few heard our early warning signals and alarms from the outbreak in Wuhan, China.   Let's focus on the here and now and less about blame.  There is plenty of time for post-event analysis.  I would get used to a 4 - 6 month disruption. 

    I am posting updates that we need to be aware of on my Linked In-Site connected to the CDC, WHO, and other information about the basics.  It works.  I would start informing yourselves with FACTS and NOT FICTION.

    If I can inform our organization as architects, happy to do so.
    I hope this information is helpful to your preparation for a continuing emerging infectious disease situation.
    Best
    Molly

    Molly M. Scanlon, PhD, FAIA, FACHA
    Environmental Health Scientist








  • 15.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 12 days ago
    Thank you Molly for this update - keep them coming - since helpful.

    ------------------------------
    Thomas Fowler IV, DPACSA, FAIA
    Professor, Director of Graduate Architecture Program
    California Polytechnic State University
    San Luis Obispo CA
    ------------------------------



  • 16.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 12 days ago
    Molly,
    Terrific analysis and recommendations!   You should be commended for your dedication to this important issue and your general interest in our health environment at a macro level..   I am sure all of our colleagues join me in thanking you.  Keep up the good work and keep us informed.

    Jim Diaz

    James R. Diaz |FAIA, FACHA

    Principal Emeritus

     

    KMDARCHITECTS

    417 Montgomery St. Suite 200

    San Francisco, Ca. 94104

    (415)398-5191 C (415) 254-6927

    www.kmdarchitects.com | jdiaz@kmd-arch.com

    tw | fb | in | g+fl 







  • 17.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Thank you Jim Diaz
    High praise coming from such a great contributor in the healthcare community.
    Best to you and your family.
    Molly






  • 18.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    With everything across America being cancelled, It would appear to me too, that the prudent thing would be to cancel.

    ------------------------------
    Steven Ellinger FAIA
    Partner
    Cadco Architects-Engineers, Inc.
    Abilene TX
    ------------------------------



  • 19.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago

    Thanks Molly

     

    Given your expertise, I'd appreciate your comments regarding this article https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca .  It includes a very detailed analysis of a wide range of data and makes that case that we are already in a situation in the US that will lead to an overwhelmed health care system and high mortality rates within 2 weeks (perhaps less). 

     

    Michael F. Malinowski FAIA

    President, Applied Architecture Inc

    Sacramento CA

     






  • 20.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Michael;  This article assuming it is based on facts has a lot of interesting charts and analysis.
    If you review Chart 11 you will see that 7 days after the Wuhan region went into lock-down they started to see a dissipation of new cases.  You will also see that there was a dramatic spike for one day and then things started to drop off.  This article also I feel correctly positions that the US is doing better than some of these Epi-curves and worse than others.  Right now our US experts have analyzed this data and I believe made the correct suggestion to step back and let's try and get this under control now taking similar steps of isolation.  This is a tough decision in an American country that places a high value on freedom. 

    Others:
    Although I have not been a fan of our current WH Administration, at this point the experts are being allowed to come to the podium and speak.  It is imperative that we look past the "style" of the message and listen to the experts that are shining through.  They are giving great guidance.  It might have been slow on the uptake but hey we are getting there.  Everything in this situation is not going to be perfect.  We also need to be very proud of our states, governors, and public health departments that are dealing with overwhelming numbers.  We need to understand that in disease cases (1) is considered a suspicious situation with travel cases of other diseases (like Legionellosis) while just a 2nd case is considered an "outbreak."  So when we hear about 100s of cases in a small region and now moving toward thousands and numerous deaths, this is alarming information in public health circles. 

    What we ALL can do:
    1) Proper Handwashing and Hand Rubbing Techniques and be sure you, your family and your staff in the work environment know the basics.  Each of these are located on a WHO or CDC site and the Johns Hopkins you Tube videos are good visual learning tools.  General handwashing with infectious disease situation is NOT enough.  

    2) Environmental Cleaning:  Everyone went out and bought bleach but does anyone know what to do with this?
    Review the CDC dilution criteria for cleaning.  My friends are mixed this up and put into a COMPLETELY CLEAN spray bottle and do general surface cleaning.  Do not mix with ammonia bottles or other bottles that could have chemical reactions.

    3) Tracking Disease Cases:  Some of you may have seen this but if not here is the link to THE MOST UPDATED disease case information.  I have been watching this site since the inception.  Johns Hopkins was way out in front of this situation.  When you click on the US, it will tell you up to date cases by state.  This has helped my just clarify what I am hearing on the news and WH briefing for case updates etc.  It gives me a visual picture of the developing situation. 

    4) Architects and Adaptive Reuse:  I work now in water quality and the firm I work for has had numerous calls from healthcare providers needing to flex or expand into unoccupied space, buildings, or taking over other buildings for all sort of needs.  My job is to assure these spaces are safe from a water quality point of view (patient care use as well as drinking).  But let's look at this from the skills our entire profession.  We could bring unselfish quality skill sets to practical use.  We could assist with evaluating buildings as safe for change of occupancy and change of use.  And this is not just about hospitals either. Hotels, hospitality, education facilities that could be dormant may need to be used.  We have to think of this pandemic as another form of resiliency within the built environment.  This isn't a flood or a tornado or earthquake but it acts like one without the physical disaster.  This is a unique challenge. 

    I know there are many healthcare architects out there that can call and maybe assist their clients directly with these situations.  But I think there are equally as many other architects that service other building types that can assist with services.  I don't know how to centralize that thinking but if your on a school board or committee then think about how you can assist your community.  If your on a healthcare board or committee start thinking about that too.  If you work with commercial office - reach out to your facility contact and just say - hey we are here if you need us to evaluate something related to this. 

    I don't want to blabber on here.  I simply want all of us to start thinking creatively about using our talents for adaptive reuse in our communities.  We have abilities at a foundational level to assist.  This is not about designing something - this is about technical skills of how buildings operate and can remain safe for change of occupancy or use during a disaster.  Some of you are way better at that knowledge than I am.  My small world of knowledge is on disease transmission primarily through water. 

    Some of you have contacted my linked in page.  I am trying daily to put up simple resources to pass along.
    The direct link is:

    I thank you all for reaching out and wanting more information.
    I am grateful for your support and understanding that the science will lead us to the direction we need to go.
    Best to all
    Molly

    Molly M. Scanlon, PhD, FAIA, FACHA
    Environmental Health Scientist









  • 21.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Molly,

    I truly appreciate your knowledge, wisdom, and sharing.  I do appreciate it all the more so as I am a nationally certified as a disaster assistance responder, a disaster assistance trainer, and a train the trainer, certified by the State of California Office of Emergency Services.  There are a great many parallels in the response to natural disasters and in the response to human, biological disasters.  

    My gratitude for your guidance,

    Ken

    KENNETH J. FILARSKI FAIA, LEED FELLOW, AICP, LEED AP BD+C, SITES AP, CFM, SAP+AEER, NCARB

    FILARSKIARCHITECTURE+PLANNING+RESEARCH

    P.O. Box 3210, Providence, RI 02909

    401.331.8800

    kjfilarski@yahoo.com


    Laurentia Bioregion


    Chair, U.S. Green Building Council Rhode Island

    USGBC LEED Location + Planning Technical Advisory Group

    USGBC Faculty - LEED and SITES

    Richard Upjohn Fellow, American Institute of Architects

    National Disaster Assistance Committee, American Institute of Architects
    President, Rhode Island Architects & Engineers Emergency Response Task Force 7

    Task Group, Residential Resilience Guidelines, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development







  • 22.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 10 days ago
    Dear Molly:
    This is fantastic information.  Thank you for dedication to the topic and sharing it so openly.

    I often look at this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, which is more quantitative.  It also shows country-specific graphs.

    Today, we have more active cases than China, which reinforces our need to take this situation very seriously.

    Stay safe everyone!
    Zig

    --
    Zigmund Rubel, FAIA
    President & CEO
    A Design+Consulting
    156 2nd Street
    San Francisco, CA 94105
    m 415.235.7899





  • 23.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 10 days ago
    Hi Zigmund:  Thank you for this link to this site.
    I have been looking for something with country specific epi curves and that has been harder to find.
    The Johns Hopkins site is great but I was disappointed they don't currently have epi-curves for each country.

    Additionally - one of the things I love about being in public health and science is the open nature of information.  This is a way of life and although research science is highly competitive, it is part of the public health mission to be of service to our communities, state, country and international neighbors.  The professionals you are seeing during the WH Briefings are non-partisan public health diplomats that serve our country. That to me has been very different experience than the competitive situation I dealt with for years in architecture.  I understand the necessity of competition and earning a commission for design work - it is not a criticism to anyone here.  It's just as I matured in life, it was necessary to move toward a common cause and more open discipline of research to benefit others.  Public health is often thought of as a bunch of folks sitting at desks giving hand outs to the public.  That is not the focus of the mission.  It is to serve everyone in our local, state, of federal system (depending upon job related duties) and also make sure the most vulnerable among us are not left behind. 

    FAIA Group:
    For those of you that would like to read a first hand account of being in lock-down in China here is a link to a story from an infection control group that I belong to.


    Please note in the story:
    - knowing proper hand washing
    - cleaning and disinfection of the home
    - limiting trips to public places
    - clothing choices / shoe choices
    - shoe / floor transmission as a surface transmission

    All of these are practical solutions and how infection transmission occurs.  Shoe transmission is rather new research so this person was informed about everything they could do for proper isolation.

    If you have not already - consider creating a disinfection station in the home (like a mud room) when you arrive for wiping down your phone, keys, laundry hamper for taking clothes off to be washed, hand sanitizer etc.  I haven't found a great resource to post on this concept yet.   This would benefit  folks who are either in or near a hot zone or considered part of the vulnerable populations mentioned. I have a mini station near my kitchen counter when I come in. 

    Stay safe.
    Best
    Molly

    Molly M. Scanlon, PhD, FAIA, FACHA
    Environmental Health Scientist







  • 24.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 10 days ago

    Hi Molly.  You've become an architectural celebrity over this.  Thanks for your data-rich posts.

     

    Regarding the correct forum for expressing your ideas about personal disinfection within a home, perhaps you can 1) educate the profession by publishing in Architect or one of the journals, and 2) educate the public by an op-ed in the NYT or WSJ?

     

          WJHHEALTH

          William J. Hercules, FAIA, FACHA, FACHE

          President / CEO

          c:  407.312.1065

          Orlando, Florida, USA

          www.WJH-health.com

          LinkedIn

     

         2018 President, American College of Healthcare Architects

     






  • 25.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 10 days ago
    Hi Bill:  Thank you for the kind words. 
    From my perspective most of this information is readily available, but it is interesting how thirsty people are for credible information.  With that said, it is frustrating to me that people keep saying
    - wash hands
    - clean your environment, etc.
    however the specific technique is very important to perform.
    I will think about a venue to see about interest. 
    As you know from our healthcare design efforts,  infection control is a major challenge.  We hear all the time the ridiculously high levels of hospital inquired infections.  Now maybe people can understand how that happens.
    Again many thanks
    Molly








  • 26.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 10 days ago
    Social distancing is much discussed, as is limiting the number of people in a given space/place of public gathering.  Most times the numbers for each do not work out.

    SIMPLE MATH ON THE GEOMETRY OF SOCIAL DISTANCING...the common measure recommended for social distancing in this COVID-19 pandemic is to keep a distance of six feet (6') between yourself and others.  That places you as the center of a circle with a 6 foot radius.  The area of that circle is 113.097 square feet.  Let's call it 114 square feet - which is larger than a 10 foot by 10 foot room.  The recommendations for the size of crowds in a gathering place have been to have no more than 250 people, 200 people, 100 people, or 25 people depending on the source.  That then means the restaurants, bars/pubs, meeting places would have to have a floor space area 28,500 square feet for 250 people; 22,800 square feet for 200 people; 11,400 square feet for 100 people; and 2,850 square feet for 25 people. Forget what is allowed by the building codes as the occupant levels for Assembly functions vary between 5 net square feet to 15 net square feet per person - that does not apply here.  I seriously doubt that most of the venues limiting their crowd attendance to the above 250, 200, 100, or 25 occupant numbers have the requisite amount of floor space to adhere to the recommended 6 foot radius of social distancing space.  Let's not just use numbers for the sake of numbers. Let's do the math and strategic thinking as to the implications and true spatial geometries of social distancing.  KJF

    KENNETH J. FILARSKI FAIA, LEED FELLOW, AICP, LEED AP BD+C, SITES AP, CFM, SAP+AEER, NCARB

    FILARSKIARCHITECTURE+PLANNING+RESEARCH

    P.O. Box 3210, Providence, RI 02909

    401.331.8800


     





  • 27.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago

    Thanks Molly!

     

          WJHHEALTH

          William J. Hercules, FAIA, FACHA, FACHE

          President / CEO

          c:  407.312.1065

          Orlando, Florida, USA

          www.WJH-health.com

          LinkedIn

     

         2018 President, American College of Healthcare Architects

     






  • 28.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Molly, thank you for your message to all of us.  Unfortunately, there are many people who don't understand the concept of exponential growth.  By isolating ourselves, we may be able to break the cycle of exponential growth.  It seems that the message is still not getting out so that people understand why this is scary.

    I also worry that people who are on the edge or have dipped below will continue to work, even if they are sick, and do whatever they can to stay afloat while putting themselves and others at risk.  Many of these people may be the ones who are serving and assisting our most at risk populations, the elderly.  As you say, we need to prepare.  We need to consider the plight of others and to help, if we can.

    ------------------------------
    Helen Kessler FAIA
    President
    HJ Kessler Associates, Inc.
    Chicago IL
    ------------------------------



  • 29.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Hi Helen:  Thank you for your comments.
    Our goal in public health is to continue to persist with facts and data.
    Its been hopeful to see the voices of scientists, epidemiologists, and public health professionals rise to the microphone to be heard in times of uncertainty. 
    Not everyone will listen or comply but I am grateful the majority will try and cooperate.

    As Fellows of this organization, we are built for leadership.
    Our leadership is needed to model the necessary behavior (physically, socially, emotionally) to others.
    I also am asking that we use our leadership in our communities in much the same way we would use it during a resiliency situation of a natural disaster. 

    Again, thank you for your supportive comments.
    Stay safe and well
    Best
    Molly

    Molly M. Scanlon, PhD, FAIA, FACHA
    Environmental Health Scientist






  • 30.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 10 days ago
    Molly, I am hoping you can provide some feedback on the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) which paints a very sobering picture of the effectiveness of suppression and mitigation strategies and appears to be the basis of current policy.  It  states: 

    However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear. 

    Development of a vaccine is the necessary step to ending the crises, whatever the strategy. Architectural firms will need to be planning for a year to 18 months for a business and social environment that is unknowable. We could use some of the time to imagine what resilient communities really means.

    Jay Raskin, FAIA

    Jay Raskin Architect
    2418 SW Troy Street
    Portland, Oregon  97219
    503.440.0436









  • 31.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 9 days ago
    Hi Jay:  Thank you for the inquiry.  Before I answer, my disclosure is that modeling for social impact on clinical disease is not my expertise.  But I am familiar with modeling in environmental health.  In scanning the article a few message points stand out to me.

    1) none of these social isolation mitigation measures at this level of mitigation and suppression have ever been tested before.  We really are in a world wide public health experimentation project.  At the same time, how the Chinese decided to deal with this was through suppression.  And we are now seeing that it worked.  Today actually is the first day, China is not having new cases.  That might not stay that way day to day, but we need to be able to respect another countries approach if it worked. 

    2) Multiple interventions are most likely necessary  - as we know from environmental design --- its never just ONE thing that makes something work.  It's usually a series of design features and reinforcement of a concept that creates a theme to the success of the work.  Public health is often a series of multiple policies / interventions within a delivery framework.  The rigor of science requires us to isolate variables to measure one thing and determine the success of a health measure is due to one thing.  I understand the necessity of that.  However, in the practical application of an intervention it might be a series of things to implement to deal with prevention of a disease. 

    3) These mitigation and suppression interventions have issues related to their feasibility of implementation - I mentioned this in an earlier post.  America is based on personal freedom at all cost.  In China freedom was suppressed in order to minimize illness and death.  I am a person for personal sacrifice for the betterment of humanity.  But I am sure others would disagree.  I am encouraged in my community most people are taking a mitigation effort seriously to maybe avoid going into full suppression.  I found this first hand account of a person who was in China very interesting talking about the balance of government and personal responsibility. 



    4) Optimal timing is not yet known for each intervention - this research did modeling with multiple variables.  All models using variables have what is known as a level of uncertainty.  Uncertainty factors can shift models significantly.  That is why this manuscript shows ranges of outcomes for each variable.  Models are good to give ranges of potential outcomes, but ultimately the definition of successful intervention will be defined in the minimization of disease cases, the reduction in the number of deaths, and the ability for a country to return to normal living conditions and financial stability. The only thing we don't know is was there a psychological cost due to the suppression intervention.

    Right now China is the only place that has survived this pandemic. Ignoring their methods to survive this seems unwise.  They chose suppression as the non-pharmacological intervention.  The rest of the world can experiment, but do you want to be part of an unconfirmed experiment? Today Italy has passed the number of deaths in China with 1/2 as many disease cases.  I doubt that will be defined as success. 


    Stay safe and continue personal infection control techniques.
    Molly

    Molly M. Scanlon, PhD, FAIA, FACHA
    Environmental Health Scientist












  • 32.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Molly,
    There are many reports and varied opinions but hearing from a public health scientist focused on infectious disease helps us grasp reality, even painful reality.  Thank you for your service to your fellow architects.
    Jim

    James R. Foster, FAIA
    Architect Emeritus
    West Fork, AR








  • 33.  RE: LA meeting

    Posted 11 days ago
    Molly,
    Thanks so much for this sensible overview. This is some of most concise and informative information about COVID-19 I've seen. Appreciate your sharing your professional insights here.
    David Greusel, FAIA
    Convergence Design

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    David Greusel FAIA
    Principal
    Convergence Design LLC
    Kansas City MO
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